By Jeff Warren
May 5, 2022
DIVERSIFIED DIVIDEND FOCUSED PORTFOLIO UPDATE
The purpose of this communication is to provide information that gives context and clarity about your investments.
There are currently five major sources of economic and market pressures:
- High rate of inflation
- Rising interest rates
- Supply chain disruptions
- China’s COVID-19 lockdowns
- Russian invasion of Ukraine
These are factors “conspiring” to put fear into investors, and they are disrupting the supply/demand balance for many of the products and commodities essential in daily life.
By the numbers:
Performance of Major Indexes YTD 4/30/2022
It is easy to see the U.S. stock market has had a tough 4 months. It is also noteworthy to see the bond market is negative as well (more to come on this). The real estate industry as expressed by the D.J. Select REIT Index underscores the pressure on stocks since these are all publicly traded REITs on the exchanges. The positive asset class for the year is commodities (energy, agriculture, metals, etc.). This can be linked directly to inflation, supply chain disruptions, China, and the war.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 indexes are all negative year to date. Here is what I have gleaned from the resources and professionals we follow.
Bonds / Fixed Income
The bond market reacts negatively to high inflation expectations and increasing interest rates. This is the short answer as to why most bonds (treasuries, corporate, municipal, mortgage, etc.) are doing poorly this year. The other side of this, however, can be improving yields for bond investors if rates keep rising.
Most accounts do own varying amount of bonds, mostly managed by PIMCO. These funds are purposed for dividend income or diversification. Dividends and distributions continue being paid with no exception. That allows us to have little to no concern about the day-to-day price movements of these funds.
During March-May 2020 most bonds dropped sharply, but the PIMCO funds owned retraced all price declines in short order and ended the year with positive returns!
Sustainable, Responsible, Impact Investing
We place a heavy emphasis on identifying the companies, managers and funds working at “ground zero”
to provide solutions for climate change and environmental sustainability.
These are companies creating renewable energy, energy efficiency solutions, sustainable agriculture, and sustainable “carbon negative” materials that replace plastic. This is not a complete list, but I believe points to the direction being taken.
There is a key characteristic that underscores investing in this sector, long time horizons. There are many reasons for a long investment period, however the one that is the most significant is the fact the world is going through THE energy transition which is impacting every aspect of our lives. We are still in the initial stages of this transition, with many trillions of investment dollars slated to follow.
Transitions lead to inconsistencies and inefficiencies – and therefore investment opportunities. Then we have the creation of the technology and supply chains that support this transformation – and therefore more investment opportunities. My oversimplified process for investing in these companies is to identify great management and companies which:
- We believe have real, scalable solutions to sustainability, and
- Possess a sound strategy and a proven track record of successful implementation, and
- Are poised in their sector to win market share as demand grows.
There also many Bonds/Fixed Income investments we use, some have their own “ESG” credentials. The fundamental utility in these, in addition to diversification, is dividends. Dividends can add more stability and can be used for income if desired.
Lastly, we use a measured amount of managed futures to hedge market volatility.
If you wish to discuss the markets or specifics about our Diversified Growth and Dividend-Focused Income portfolios, please call or e-mail me.
Sincerely
Jeff Warren